Predictions, value bets and the bookmakers who frame them

Updated October 2026

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Predictions are sold every day as certainty. They are not. A “prediction” in sports betting is one person’s read of form, statistics, line-ups and a hundred smaller inputs, priced against the market’s own opinion and trimmed by the bookmaker’s margin. What sits beneath that description is a calculation the bookmaker does on every market, a wagering scheme built on top of it, and a regulatory frame that decides which names a British bettor is even allowed to deal with. This page is a guide through that machinery, not a tip sheet. No picks, no guaranteed winners, no income claims. Just the architecture, the costs, and the operators worth considering alongside it.

The figures and operator claims below were verified as of 27 October 2026 against the Gambling Commission’s public register and each operator’s own stated terms.

Predictions on a handset: how a betting app changes the workflow

Touchscreen betting is now the default. The app is where the bettor places singles, builds accumulators, watches in-play markets and, increasingly, where an external prediction lands before the bettor opens a betting slip. A prediction app is a piece of software that takes in fixtures, form, line-ups, head-to-heads and a model’s own probabilities, and returns picks ranked by confidence, often split by sport and by bet type. Used well, it compresses an hour of pre-match research into a couple of minutes of reading. Used badly, it lets the bettor back a string of confident-sounding picks without ever asking what confident is computed against.

What an app actually does for the bettor varies by design. The simplest ones repackage bookmaker prices as “value picks” — a contradiction in terms, since the bookmaker price is the thing a value bet is supposed to beat. The more useful ones maintain their own probability model, compare it to the bookmaker’s implied probability (the price minus the margin), and flag the games where the two disagree by more than a few percentage points. Those are the matches worth looking at by hand; the app narrows the field, the bettor confirms the news and the team sheet, and the bet goes on a slip only after both lines of evidence line up.

Hardware matters less than the reader might think. A modern phone runs every major sportsbook smoothly, and the difference between an iOS app, an Android app and the mobile browser version is mostly cosmetic. What changes the workflow is the app’s own layout: where live odds sit, how the bet builder opens, whether cash out is one tap away, and whether the login uses a fingerprint or a six-digit code every time. These are convenience questions, not prediction questions, but they decide whether the bettor places the bet they meant to place or the one closest to it in a hurry.

A prediction tool layered on top of that app — a model, an algorithm, a tipster service — does not turn a margin-laden market into an edge. The bookmaker’s price already incorporates the model output of a large quant team. A second model only finds value where the first one disagrees with the live price, and most markets on the major events are efficient enough that this disagreement is smaller than the margin the bookmaker charges. That is the lesson the rest of this page keeps coming back to.

Where a prediction app earns its place

A prediction app earns its place when it does three things well. First, it filters: it should not show 200 picks a day, it should show the matches where the model’s read differs from the bookmaker’s by enough to be worth a bet. Second, it explains: every pick should carry a reason in plain English — the relevant injury, the expected goals trend, the pace differential — that the bettor can confirm or reject without leaving the app. Third, it logs: a record of picks, prices and outcomes is the only way a bettor can audit whether the service is doing what it claims.

None of those three jobs requires AI, and “best AI betting prediction app” is as much a marketing label as “free” or “best odds”. A spreadsheet built on Expected Goals data does the same filtering work for a football-only bettor. The advantage of an AI-branded service is speed and breadth across sports, not intelligence in any meaningful sense.

What a prediction really is, and what a value bet really costs

A bookmaker’s prediction is a price. The bookmaker looks at a match, attaches a probability to each outcome — home win, draw, away win, more or fewer goals — and turns each probability into a decimal price. Divide the probability by one, and the inverse, minus the margin, is what the bookmaker offers to the public. The bettor’s prediction, in turn, is a price at which the bettor is willing to back one of those outcomes. A value bet is the rare moment when the bettor’s price is higher than the bookmaker’s true probability — that is, higher than the price the bookmaker ought to offer once the margin is taken out.

Margin is the silent tax on every market. A fair coin at 2.00 each side would pay the bettor exactly what they risked. A bookmaker offering 1.90 on each side keeps five pence of every pound bet on the market; the payout share is 95 % and the margin is 5 %. A more accurate way to see it: take a two-way market priced at 1.90 / 1.90, add the implied probabilities (1 ÷ 1.90 for each side, about 52.6 % each), and the sum is 105.3 %, not 100 %. That 5.3 % above the true total is the overround, the expression of margin baked into both prices.

Margin is why “best odds” claims are mostly noise. A bookmaker quoting 1.91 instead of 1.90 keeps 4.8 % rather than 5.3 %, a real difference at scale but a rounding error to most bettors on a single bet. Margin is also why the headline 100/30 on a Premier League match is a worse bet than 6/4 on a League Two match where the bookmaker has done less work: the elite leagues are priced sharper and the margin is smaller, but the bettor pays that tighter margin on more outcomes and the bookmaker’s edge compounds.

The arithmetic of a single bet

A single bet at decimal odds multiplies the stake by the price and returns the result, including the stake. A £10 bet at 3.00 returns £30 (a £20 profit on top of the £10 stake). A £10 bet at 1.50 returns £15 (a £5 profit). The same bet at fractional 1/2 — one half-unit profit per unit staked — converts to 1.5 in decimal. Fractional 5/1 is six units returned for one staked, decimal 6.00. Fractional 11/10 is decimal 2.10. The conversion is mechanical: a/b in fractional becomes (a ÷ b) + 1 in decimal.

An accumulator (“acca”) multiplies the prices of each leg into one combined price, so three legs at 2.00, 3.00 and 4.00 combine to a single 24.00 line. The stake is lost if any leg fails, which is why an acca carries a much higher expected margin than a straight single: the bookmaker takes its cut on every leg. That compounding is the reason a five-fold acca on long-priced outsiders usually pays more in marketing than in expected profit.

Why no tip is ever certain

A tip is one forecast against many. The bookmaker has its forecast (priced into the odds), the bettor has theirs (a read of form or a model output), and the match outcome is one of two or three draws from a much wider probability distribution. Confidence levels in tipster services are almost always miscalibrated: a “70 %” confidence pick wins seven times in ten only on average over hundreds of similar picks, and any single pick with that label is just as likely to be one of the three that loses.

The honest framing of a value bet is statistical. Over many bets, a bettor who only places wagers where their price is genuinely higher than the true probability (the bookmaker’s margin-removed price) makes a small profit; a bettor who places wagers whenever they “like” a team almost always loses slowly to the margin. Sample size matters, and a hundred bets is barely enough. A tipster who has shown a profit over 2,000 bets at quoted prices is a different animal from one with a glowing month on social media. No single tip carries that record forward, and no bookmaker’s free bet offer changes the underlying odds.

Bankroll and staking discipline

The boring half of a value-bet strategy is staking. A common rule is one to two per cent of the bank per single bet, scaled by perceived edge. A 1 % stake on a 1.83 shot at a perceived 60 % probability is roughly a bet on a 7 % edge, which compounds cleanly. A 10 % stake at the same numbers is a different bet entirely — a bet on the bettor’s nerve, with ruin the realistic outcome if a short losing streak arrives.

Bankroll discipline does not save a bad model. It just makes sure the bettor survives the variance long enough to find out whether the model is any good. A free bet prediction service that recommends 20 picks a week does not care about bankroll discipline, because it is paid regardless of outcome. The bettor who follows it should care.

Ten licensed bookmakers and what each one is for

The ten names below all hold a Gambling Commission remote licence for Great Britain, and each can be checked against the Commission’s public register by its licence number. The list is not a ranking of which is best at predictions; the bookmaker’s price already incorporates the best model the bookmaker could build, and a value bet is found against the price, not from the brand. What the list is for is matching a reader’s betting style to a bookmaker’s strengths. Each review closes on the reader it suits.

NetBet — for the bettor who wants price boosts every day

NetBet’s offer sits squarely on the small accumulators and boosted prices that casual football bettors like to place. Daily Boosts lift the price on selected matches; Profit Boosts lift the price on accumulators; a Bet Builder with instant dynamic odds lets the bettor stack same-game selections and see the combined price update as each leg is added. The site’s sports stats cover the major European leagues, which is enough for a value-check on any pick the bettor is considering. Best for the bettor who bets on Premier League and Champions League fixtures and wants daily variation in the markets on offer.

Bet600 — for the racing-only bettor

Best Odds Guaranteed is the feature Bet600 leans on, and it is the right one for a bettor whose main interest is horse racing. The mechanic is simple: take a price early, and if the starting price is bigger when the race begins, the bet is paid at the SP. That removes one branch of bookmaker risk on every racing bet and lets the bettor place the morning before the card without sweating the market drift. The product page is otherwise thin, and Bet600 is not the right home for a bettor whose betting covers football, tennis and a dozen other sports.

Kwiff — for the bettor who likes surprise prices

Kwiff’s Supercharge feature is the marketing hook, and it works as advertised: a bet can be boosted from something ordinary like 2/1 to something much bigger like 20/1, on a single or a multi, on any sport, and the boosted price replaces the original at the moment the bet is placed. Whether that is a value bet depends on the original price and the true probability, not on the size of the boost. Kwiff suits a bettor who enjoys a price boost, but it works best for those who can quickly weigh the Supercharged price against their own research.

Sky Bet — for the new customer exploring the market

Sky Bet’s welcome offer is the easy comparison point: £30 in free bets after a £5 deposit and a first single or each-way bet of at least 5p at odds of 1/1 or greater. The free bets come in three £10 tokens, the usual shape for a bookmaker welcome offer. Sky Bet’s broader product — markets, in-play, Bet Builder — is competitive without standing out, which makes the brand a sensible default for a new customer who wants to learn what a UK sportsbook looks like before committing to a longer relationship.

Matchbook — for the bettor who understands exchanges

A betting exchange is a different animal from a sportsbook. The customer backs or lays against other customers, not against the bookmaker, and the margin is usually tighter because the exchange takes only a commission on net winnings. Matchbook offers Bet Builder, multiples, in-play betting and live streaming of horse racing and greyhounds. It is the right home for a bettor who already understands back and lay, who can run their own price comparisons and who treats the bookmaker’s price as one input among several. It is the wrong home for a bettor who wants the simplicity of betting against a counterparty that quotes its own line.

Sporting Index — for the bettor willing to lose more than they staked

Spread betting sits under a different regulator — the Financial Conduct Authority for financial spreads, the Gambling Commission for sports spreads — and the product behaves differently. The bettor’s loss or profit is not capped at the stake; Sporting Index’s own terms warn that spread betting losses can exceed the deposit, the same caveat every spread book carries. The fixed-odds book is smaller and the welcome offer is tied to a qualifying fixed-odds bet at minimum odds of 1/2. Spread betting is a sophisticated route, and Sporting Index is a primary destination for the punter who wants to trade on total goals or race index markets.

Betfair — for the bettor who wants both an exchange and a sportsbook

Betfair Sportsbook is the fixed-odds arm; Betfair Exchange is the back-and-lay market most bettors mean when they say “Betfair”. The sportsbook adds in-play betting, Bet Builder, free live streaming and a 90 Minute Payout market on selected football matches (a goal scored in added time at the end of the first half does not count for payout purposes on certain markets). The combined product is one of the broadest in the British market and the natural home for a bettor who wants both formats on one login.

Star Sports — for the bettor who wants an independent bookmaker

Star Sports describes itself as the UK’s leading independent bookmaker. The product mixes sportsbook, virtual sports, casino and live casino, which is more breadth than depth in any one area. The independent pitch appeals to a bettor who values the relationship — a smaller book can offer sharper prices on the events it focuses on, and a personal account manager is part of the service at the higher-stakes end. Star Sports is for the bettor who has outgrown the high-street welcome offers and wants a more bespoke arrangement.

Hollywoodbets — for the bettor whose first bet is an accumulator

Hollywoodbets’ welcome offer is shaped for a bettor whose first bet is a small accumulator: deposit £10 or more by card, place a first qualifying losing accumulator of £10 or more on three or more legs at odds of 4/1 or greater, settled within seven days, and the stake comes back as a free bet of up to £30. The structure narrows the offer to a losing first acca — a winning first acca gets no free bet — which makes the offer useful only to a bettor who genuinely expects to lose the first acca. For that reader, it is competitive. For a bettor who places singles, the offer is irrelevant.

Fitzdares — for the bettor who bets across sports

Fitzdares’ app packs cash out, accumulators, Lucky 15s, specials and antepost markets on horse racing, football, tennis, rugby, cricket, golf and American football, with in-play live odds across the product. The breadth is the point: a bettor whose interest spans a Saturday of racing, a Sunday of Premier League and a weeknight of American football finds all of it under one login. The product is not the deepest on any one sport, which makes Fitzdares the right home for a varied punter rather than a single-sport specialist.

The mechanics: what a prediction costs and what it pays back

A prediction’s cost is the margin baked into the price. A two-way market priced at 1.90 / 1.90 carries an implied probability on each side of about 52.6 %; added together, the total is about 105.3 %, and the extra 5.3 % is the overround. The payout share — what the bookmaker returns to bettors across every outcome — is 1 ÷ 1.0526, about 95.0 %, and the margin — what the bookmaker keeps on every pound bet on this market — is 5.0 %.

That is the headline figure on a balanced two-way market at 1.90 each side, and it is the cleanest illustration of margin in decimal odds. A more lopsided market (1.50 / 3.00, for example) gives the same margin only if the prices sum correctly: 1 ÷ (1 ÷ 1.50 + 1 ÷ 3.00) is the payout share (about 90.0 %) and the margin is about 10.0 %. The bookmaker adjusts the margin by the size of the spread; a tight two-way market at 1.95 / 1.95 carries a margin closer to 2.6 %, while a long-priced outsider at 11.0 paired with 1.05 on the favourite carries a margin closer to 13 %.

A combination bet compounds the margin on every leg. Three legs at 2.00 each, with a 5 % margin per leg compounded, raise the effective margin on the combined price to about 14.3 %, because each leg’s overround multiplies into the next. That is one reason accumulators feel generous and rarely are: the marketing-friendly combined price pays out handsomely when it wins, but the underlying margin has been quietly lifted on every leg.

Margin is what the bettor pays for the convenience of an instant price. It is also the line the value bet tries to beat. A bettor’s own probability model produces a “true” probability for each outcome; the value bet is the one where the bettor’s true probability is higher than the bookmaker’s implied probability (the price minus the margin) by enough to compensate for the bookmaker’s edge. Most picks fail that test on most days, and the daily work is filtering them out, not finding the rare one.

Legality and the Gambling Commission’s role

Every operator on the list above holds a Gambling Commission remote licence for Great Britain, and the Commission’s public register is the only place that proves it. The register can be searched by business name, trading name, domain or account number; it lists the licence categories a brand is permitted to operate under; and it is updated as licences are granted, varied or revoked. A British bettor who is unsure whether a name is licensed can check the register directly and should treat any name that does not appear there as unlicensed for the purposes of betting in Great Britain.

The legal frame is the Gambling Act 2005, which covers Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales). Northern Ireland has its own older law and is outside the Act, so “GB-licensed” means licensed for Great Britain only. Since the Gambling (Licensing and Advertising) Act 2014 an operator whose remote facilities are used in Great Britain needs a Commission licence wherever it is based, and a Curaçao, Maltese or Gibraltar licence is not a substitute. The penalty for providing gambling facilities without the licence the Act requires is an offence under section 33 of the 2005 Act, aimed at the operator.

Identity verification is the other side of the licence. Since 7 May 2019 a licensed operator has to verify a customer’s name, address and date of birth before that customer can deposit or gamble, and that verification covers free bets and bonus offers as well as cash stakes. Anonymous play at a licensed site is not available. A first deposit triggers the check, and any higher spend can trigger source-of-funds questions under the money-laundering rules.

Spread betting under a different regulator

Financial spread betting is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, not the Gambling Commission, because the product behaves like a derivatives contract. The Spreadex disclaimer that spread betting losses can exceed deposits is the standard FCA-required warning on financial spreads. A sports spread (on total goals or winning favourites, for example) sits under the Commission’s general betting regime but uses the same gearing, which is why every spread product in Britain carries the same loss-can-exceed-deposit caveat.

Player protection: limits, GAMSTOP and the help on offer

GAMSTOP is the national multi-operator online self-exclusion scheme, mandatory for every GB-licensed online operator since 31 March 2020. A customer can register with GAMSTOP for six months, one year, five years, or five years with auto-renewal, and after the minimum period the exclusion stays in place for a further seven years unless the customer asks GAMSTOP to remove it. GAMSTOP covers online sites and apps; betting shops run a separate self-exclusion service.

The other player-protection regime is the financial vulnerability check, in force since 30 August 2024. When a customer’s deposits minus withdrawals exceed £150 in a rolling 30 days (since 28 February 2025), the operator runs a public-record check for signs of financial distress — bankruptcy, county court judgments and the like. It is not a credit check, and it is not an income check, and it does not block play on its own. A second regime, the financial risk assessment that the press calls “affordability checks”, is announced in a staged plan with no start date as of the date this guide was last verified, and the cap on bonus wagering at 10x — a £10 bonus needing no more than £100 of bets to clear — has been in force since 19 January 2026.

Deposit limits are a customer-set tool, not a state-set ceiling. Every licensed operator offers a gross deposit limit on a fixed time frame, and the customer sets the level. There is no state-set deposit or loss ceiling for betting in Great Britain; the limit is what the customer chooses, and the operator enforces it. That is the model Britain has settled on: the bettor is trusted to choose their own limit, with checks and breaks triggered when the limit is exceeded.

Help is available outside the operators. GamCare runs the National Gambling Helpline. GambleAware publishes information and funds treatment. The NHS runs regional gambling clinics. Gamblers Anonymous runs peer-support meetings. A bettor who feels their betting has stopped being entertainment can reach any of these directly.

Credit cards, payments and the verification chain

Credit cards have been banned for gambling in Great Britain since 14 April 2020, including credit-card-funded payments through an e-wallet. Debit cards and bank-based payments are not covered by the ban, and those are the standard payment methods at every GB-licensed operator. Identity verification runs alongside payment: a first deposit triggers the check, the operator verifies name, address and date of birth, and only then is the deposit accepted. No anonymous play at a licensed site, no credit-card play at any site.

Cryptocurrency deposits are a grey area. No state list of permitted payment methods exists, and no statutory rule for or against cryptocurrency deposits at licensed operators was found; each operator sets its own policy and describes it on its own terms page. The honest framing is that licensed operators tend to accept debit cards, bank transfers and a defined set of e-wallets, while some operators accept cryptocurrencies and others do not. A bettor who prefers to deposit in cryptocurrency should check the operator’s terms before signing up.

The cost of an unlicensed site

A GB-licensed site costs the bettor verification, possible source-of-funds questions at higher spend, and the bonus wagering cap. An unlicensed site costs none of those. The trade is what the bettor gives up: no GAMSTOP coverage, no Gambling Commission complaints route, no approved dispute-resolution body, no British consumer redress if funds are withheld, no application of the £150 vulnerability check or the 10x bonus cap. A bet on an unlicensed site is not illegal for the customer — no offence aimed at the customer was found in the relevant statute — but the bettor’s protection is gone, and the operator’s enforcement regime is whatever the operator chooses to run.

The Commission’s enforcement against unlicensed operators is disruption, not blocking: cease-and-desist notices, search-engine referrals, work with registrars, hosts and payment providers. Court-order DNS blocking powers have been given, or are about to be given, to the Commission. Internet service provider blocking is not in operation as of the date this guide was verified.

Quick glossary: the British betting vocabulary

British betting carries its own vocabulary, and the terms below come up across the operator pages and the marketing. Decimal odds are the standard form this guide uses; fractional odds are the form British bookmakers have traditionally quoted, and they are easy to read once the conversion is learned. Fractional 5/1 means a £1 stake returns £6 (£5 profit plus £1 stake); decimal 6.00 is the same. Fractional 11/10 means a £10 stake returns £21 (£11 profit plus £10 stake); decimal 2.10 is the same. “Evens” is fractional 1/1, decimal 2.00. “Odds-on” means shorter than evens: 4/6 (decimal 1.67), 1/2 (decimal 1.50).

“Best Odds Guaranteed” or BOG is the racing product on offer at several of the operators above; the bet is paid at the higher of the price taken and the starting price. The “starting price” or SP is the price set by the on-course bookmakers at the off, and a backer who took an early price and finds the SP is bigger gets paid at the SP. “Each-way” is two bets of equal stake: one on the win, one on the place, with place terms varying by race type and operator. “Ante-post” is a bet placed before the final declarations, and it carries the risk of non-runner. A “Rule 4 deduction” is the bookmaker’s adjustment when a runner is withdrawn from a race.

The difference between a “single”, a “treble” and an “accumulator” (an “acca”) is the number of selections: one, three, and four or more respectively, with the combined price being the multiplication of the legs. A “Trixie” is four bets (three doubles and a treble on three selections); a “Patent” is seven bets (three singles, three doubles and a treble); a “Yankee” is eleven bets (six doubles, four trebles and a four-fold); a “Lucky 15” is fifteen bets (four singles, six doubles, four trebles and a four-fold). A “Lucky 31” is thirty-one bets on five selections; a “Heinz” is fifty-seven bets on six; a “Goliath” is two hundred and forty-seven bets on eight. The total stake is the unit stake multiplied by the number of bets, so a £1 Lucky 15 costs £15.

A “bet builder” or “same-game multi” is a same-match accumulator the bettor builds leg by leg, with the combined price updating as each leg is added. A “cash out” settles the bet before the final outcome, at a price the bookmaker quotes. A “betting exchange” matches customers against each other rather than against the bookmaker, and the customer can back or lay. “Lay” is the customer betting against an outcome — the bet wins if the runner does not win — and it is the inverse of “back”.

A “free bet” is a stake the operator credits, often as a welcome offer or a promotion; the stake is usually not returned with a winning free bet, so a £10 free bet at 3.00 returns £20 (the £30 winning price minus the £10 stake the bookmaker kept). An “enhanced odds” or “price boost” raises the price on a chosen market for a chosen period. “Acca insurance” refunds the stake as a free bet (or sometimes cash) if one leg of an accumulator lets the bet down. None of these products changes the underlying margin; they only change the price the bettor sees for one specific bet.

Frequently asked questions about predictions and value bets

How do bettors use prediction markets in practice?

A prediction market, in the betting sense, is a market where the bettor takes a position on the probability of an outcome. In a sportsbook that is a betting exchange, where the customer can back or lay against other customers, and the price reflects the market’s read of probability. In a sports spread book, the customer’s position is on a number (total goals, winning favourites) and the profit or loss scales with how far the outcome is from the spread. The bettor’s prediction is the price they are willing to take, and the bet pays out if the outcome lands on their side of the price.

What does “12” mean in a betting prediction?

“12” is a two-way betting market on a football match: a bet that the match will end in either a home win (1) or an away win (2), with the draw eliminated. It is a lower-margin bet than the 1X2 (home / draw / away) market because the draw is excluded, and the price is correspondingly shorter. It suits a bettor who expects a decisive result and is happy to forgo the draw as a third outcome.

How does a bettor win at bet prediction?

A bettor wins at bet prediction the same way a poker player wins at poker: by consistently making decisions with positive expected value over a large sample. There is no guaranteed win on any single bet, no system that overcomes the bookmaker’s margin, and no tip that is certain. A bettor who places only value bets — bets where their own probability is higher than the bookmaker’s margin-removed probability — makes a small profit on average over hundreds of bets; a bettor who places bets because they like a team loses slowly to the margin. Discipline and bankroll management are what carry the bettor through the variance.

What is a value bet, and why is no tip ever certain?

A value bet is a wager where the bettor’s own probability estimate is higher than the bookmaker’s implied probability by enough to compensate for the bookmaker’s margin. It is a statistical edge, not a guaranteed win. The bookmaker’s price is built from a probability model that incorporates form, line-ups and market consensus; the bettor’s price is a separate estimate. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and on average over many bets the side with the better model wins. On a single bet, either side can win; the value is in the long run, not the next match.

What is the bookmaker’s margin, and how can it be seen in the odds?

The margin is the slice of every pound bet that the bookmaker keeps across all outcomes of a market. It is visible in the prices themselves: a two-way market at 1.90 / 1.90 carries an implied probability of 52.6 % on each side, totalling 105.3 %, and the 5.3 % above 100 % is the overround, the expression of margin. The payout share (what the bookmaker returns to bettors) is the inverse of that total — about 95 % on this example — and the margin is the rest. Three-way markets compound the margin in the same way.

How is the return on a bet worked out from the stake and the odds?

The return is the stake multiplied by the decimal odds. A £10 stake at decimal odds 3.00 returns £30 (£20 profit plus the £10 stake returned). A £10 stake at decimal odds 1.50 returns £15 (£5 profit plus the £10 stake). For an accumulator, the prices of each leg are multiplied into one combined price, and the stake is multiplied by that combined price. For a free bet, the stake is usually not returned with a winning bet, so a £10 free bet at 3.00 returns £20 in profit rather than £30 in return.

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